Saturday 29 September 2012

Who Says?


The internet age has put a powerful weapon into the hands of single interest groups, lobbyists and all the other flotsam and jetsam of political life. With websites, twitter, YouTube, podcasts and so on a relatively small group can co-ordinate national and even international support. The success of institutions such as a Taxpayer's Alliance is, at least in part, down to 21st century technology. 

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But all is not well in the interweb lands of single issue lobbying. With the disposal of conventional media the requirement to avoid provably false statements is also started to wane. If your giving an interview to a newspaper or political affairs programme you really need to make sure your statistics are supported, and your not sprouting gibberish. Unfortunately this safety net doesn't exist online.

I'm currently reading the final independent report of the Rail Value for Money Study (RVM), with a view to, at some point in the future, writing an insightful post on where our current transport policy is, and where it should be going. I'm not there yet. 

However, I also came across the Road Users Alliance (RUA) while looking for some statistics on the number of road users in the UK, and the total passenger-distance covered. Coming straight from the RVM's analysis on the costs of the UK rail sector, and with a practical understanding of the size and composition of UK government receipts, some of the more sensationalist claims from the Director of the RUA stood out as probably failing the "provably false" test.

As such I have just fired off an email to RUA asking them to explain these apparent inconsistencies, (coped below);

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Hi,

I'm in the processing of completing some research for my own interest into how the costs of the road and rail networks are provided for. In looking for statistics on road usage and costs I came across the RUA website. While looking at your website I came across the piece by Mr Tim Green, entitled Road Users Want a Better Deal. I was wondering if you could provide some answers to the questions I had after reading this article;

1.) At the beginning of the piece a figure of £47bn is given for the tax raised from British motorists - could you provide a source for this figure? From reviewing the 2010 Budget the predicted 2009/10 revenues from fuel duty and VED combined is only £31.9bn.

2.) The piece closes by stating that "Road users collectively pay £138 billion in road related taxes and vehicle costs." Could a source for this please be provided? The implication is that these are costs levied by, or on behalf of, government; not privately incurred costs. If things such as the price of buying or maintaining a car have been included this seems out of place if not deliberately misleading in a discussion of centrally funded road maintenance.

3.) Again, could a source be provided for this statistic; "While roads account for 92% of passenger travel most of Government spending has been on rail." Based on the Department of Transport's estimate that the average road user covers 6726 km/year, and the final report from the Study on Rail Value for Money's figure of combined annual passenger-kms on the railways of roughly 50bn this would mean there are approximately 85 million road users in Britain.

I await a response at your earliest convenience,

Thanks and Regards,
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When I get a response I'll post that up as well, though I'm not holding my breath (personally I think I'm going to get some form of "it's under review" response). 

This does however illustrate that even apparently reliable sources (such as the Directors of national campaigning groups) are not beyond toting patently absurd statistics as the truth if it will further their cause.

I'd like to close this (short) piece with a request to anyone and everyone who ever ends up reading this. Next time you come across an unreferenced statistic online send a query to the website or group responsible and call them to account.

Thanks,

Z

Friday 28 September 2012

Morality +1

Gaming is increasingly becoming a mainstream phenomenon, from Xbox or eSports the gaming medium is gaining ground. Whether this is put down to technology, a maturing generation that grew up with pc games, or an increasing depth to the medium itself (though this I doubt), games are being played by more people in more ways. As games take a more central role as a method of telling stories or showing points of view, its time we, the gamers, do a bit of introspection.

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WARNING: CONTAINS SPOILERS FOR MASS EFFECT 1

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I just finished the first Mass Effect game (26 hours, medium difficulty), admittedly a little behind the times given that the whole trilogy has been out for some time, however, my initial exposure to the franchise lead me to conclude it was a Knights of the Old Republic clone and it wasn't until I found out Bioware were the developers that I made my peace.

Overall it's a reasonable RPG; the problem of why your character can gun down hundreds of enemies from day 1 is sensible enough (you start out as a special forces commander), and your license to wander round the galaxy sticking your nose into things is neatly provided via initiation into a branch of the galactic government with infinite authority.

((This is where the spoilers start))..

The ending is actually good enough to push the overall game from probably a 6.5 to a 7, if not a 7.5, and the reason for that is not just the poignancy and cinematic potential, it’s that you, as a player, actually have to make a difficult moral decision, interesting enough in fact to knock me onto a blog at 11pm to write about it.

We, as gamers, have got pretty used to having it easy in the morality department. Despite all the games that try to present the player with 'good' and 'evil' paths virtually none actually work. 'Good' acts normally mean helping people; either by doing quests or giving up money and items, however, since quests are the main reason we play the game, and the items and money and always paltry; as an example I got asked to give a homeless person some money towards the end of Mass Effect, the sum of 20 credits got me 8 "Paragon points" (on a scale of 0 to 320ish). At the time I was sitting on a bank balance of 2.5 million, with probably another half a mil in unneeded items. 'Evil' paths on the other hand tend to mean randomly killing plot-essential characters (making the game short and tedious), or borderline-psychotic acts like running over monkeys in a thirty ton combat vehicle. The choice therefore boils down to attaining a saint like reputation for virtually no cost (that freights with a heap of benefits), or having to work hard to make your game less interesting by playing a homicidal maniac.

Mass Effect made me pause because the final choice is actually a real dilemma. The situation is simple; a huge alien spaceship is about to take over a space station and in doing so bring about the invasion of the galaxy by gigantic killer robots that intend to purge all life from the galaxy (and this is credible threat). The combined fleets of the main sentient races (humanity not included) are engaged in a desperate battle around the station to try and hold back the alien, and rescue the Council (a political group standing for the peaceful corporation of the most powerful races in the galaxy). You get to make the call on what the inbound human fleet prioritises - do they ensure the Council is saved and then move on to attack the alien ship, or do they leave the 'friendly' alien fleets to their inevitable massacre, let the Council die, and focus everything on bringing down the evil alien and thereby saving the galaxy.

Since it’s a game you can probably act on the assumption that whatever you pick you'll still save the day (much props to any developer who actually write a game where you can lose right at the end!) and therefore save the friendlies, however, with an 'in game' hat on the ruthless 'strategic' thing to do is to let everyone else die so that the human fleet can destroy the enemy, thereby saving the galaxy. Fleets can be rebuilt, Councils replaced, an invasion of galactic mega-death-bots is a 'bigger picture' issue. So, I gave the order to leave the council to their fate and focus on the main objective.

But this was a real choice - sacrifice many to increase the odds of saving everyone else, or try to save everyone, and for forcing those 30 seconds of reflection, of immersion, Mass Effect justifies its list price. Fingers crossed the other 2 build on the strengths of the first instalment and tidy up some of the issues (like the same three buildings on a dozen different worlds!)

<<END OF SPOILERS>>


The only people who actually seem to talk about morality in games these days are the media and only then to blame games for every shooting, angry teenager, or driving accident they can. Apparently shooting people on games makes you a violent person. Having spent the last fifteen years killing everything from demon rabbits to civilians with weapons ranging from bare fists to nuclear submarine squadrons, and probably toting up kills in the hundreds of thousands (not counting DEFCON), I would like to say my own failure to turn into a rampaging madman puts the lie to the claim that games kill people.

However, games do seem to suggest a point of view where death and destruction are just one of those things. Most game characters have no issue with solving their problems with a bullet (or laser beam, or hyper-accelerated paint chip) between the eyes, and as long as this execution is preceded with the right conversation options we, the gamer, don't tend to get penalised. Does this subconsciously rub off on those who play games a lot? Are we more willing to accept death as a solution because we dish it out so readily in our virtual alternate lives? Unfortunately I can't really judge this since I can't be both control group and test group, but it's something I'd be happy to discuss with anyone who has some input.

Death aside though, there is one aspect of gaming which I think really has rubbed off - purpose. The characters we play in games are always part of great events, central figures to epic stories and conflicts that stretch across the worlds our e-selves wander. Play the Baldur's Gate games and you take on the role of the son of fallen deity, growing in power and influence from a child with an adopted father to a figure of dread and awe, carving your own fate onto the world around you, in Mass Effect you act at the direction of a Council that leads galactic affairs, on a quest to save all sentient life in the galaxy, in StarCraft you are part of the wars and intrigues that determine the fate of dozens of worlds and three races. Even in games such as Skyrim where you start off as 'just one of the people' you inevitably obtain great lineage and might as the story progresses.

And then when the games are over we have to go back to our 'RL' lives, where most of the time we (and everyone we know) spends their lives engaged in largely pointless activities for the purposes of shuffling round vast amounts of bits of blue, green and orange paper, or, increasingly, for the purposes of moving numbers about on a spreadsheet. When you compare the lives our fictional selves lead to those our actual selves lead the difference is soul-sapping.

I once read (and I'm afraid I can't remember where) that we are in danger of becoming a lost generation, why? - because we lack a great purpose. Over the last century there have been events of such importance and impact that they shaped the zeitgeist of a generation - the Great Wars (both of them), the Great Depression in the US, the breakup of the Soviet Union, the Spanish Civil War and so on. Events that perhaps gave a sense of meaning to the people living their lives in them. But what do we have? The UK seems to have sunk into a mire of 'greyness'. Out politicians are directionless and limp wristed, our wars happen far overseas and largely consist of 'fire and forget' engagements, the commercial dreams that drove men to risk their lives on the oceans of the world have become little more than number-crunching by vast multinationals. Even the dream of new lands and sunsets on unexplored coasts have gone, the world has been mapped and divided up. Is it surprising then that to find purpose I have to turn to the virtual?

Very few people ever get to make a 'great decision' that influences the lives of millions and generations yet to come (politicians do not count since, as far as I can tell from observation, they don't actually understand what they're doing or why, and don't so much make decisions as pander to one roar of the mob after another), and perhaps the lesson to take from that is that games are good - why? Because they let those of us who wish for purpose in life to find distractions from tedium of 9-5 existence.

/Z






Sunday 23 September 2012

Don't Read It, Sign it!



I recently came across a copy of a paper I wrote at university on how a treatise by Locke dealt with the issue of consent. Having skimmed through it out of mild nostalgic interest it occurred to me that consent was just as relevant now and it was in centuries past, only one of the my key arguments for why Locke's approach was sound no longer applies...

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Consent does a lot of work for legal and political theory. From contracts, to systems of government, to exemptions to evidence acquired by torture the idea that you are responsible for the foreseeable consequences of things you agree to is enshrined in our view of the world. Even our legal concepts of minors and our learned distaste for slavery and coercion stem from consent. To attack the idea that people consent to their social institutions, laws, workplace rules and so forth is to strike a blow against one of the most fundamental cornerstones of western capitalist democracies. Maybe it's time that blow was struck. Consent comes in two main flavours; explicit and tacit (implicit). Both have run into problems in the modern world, though for different reasons.

Explicit Consent 

For a believer in free will and a supporter of hard-core Liberalism (not to be confused with Happy Liberalism), explicit consent should be a free lunch. If you explicitly agree to something (by signing a contract, casting a vote, making a verbal declaration or whatever), your accountable and responsible for the outcomes. This seems pretty straight forward. The problem is in today's world most people are too busy, too short-sighted, too incompetent or simply too lazy to actually consider the outcomes of their actions, then, when something bad happens, they seek to wriggle out of their contractual obligations.

A superb case in point for this is the on-going PPI debacle. Tens of thousands of customers signed up for a product without understanding it, without considering if it was worth what they were paying, and then, upon finding out that actually it wasn't what they wanted they have blamed the person who sold it to them.  This seems to be no different to someone buying a car and then suing the dealership when it turns out you doesn’t actually need a car because they get the train to work. If we as a society valued 'consent' the answer to the PPI whiners would have been simple - 'you signed the contract, tough'. Instead the blame has been shifted from the consumer to the supplier for failing to adequately judge who their product would be suitable for.

There is actually an insidious undercurrent to this; we are institutionalising the concept that while mega-corporations, banks, governments and so on understand the concept of their actions and can take responsibility for their decisions, we, the people, do not. Once this idea gets a foothold where does it stop? If we are treated as minors for the purposes of establishing legal contracts what happens when the concept spreads to other areas of law?

The problem with explicit consent then is that even when situations arise where consent has clearly been given, we, as a society, are increasingly failing to hold people accountable. Consent which can be retrospectively revoked on the basis of a generally assumed inability of individuals to understand the consequences of their actions defeats the whole point of consensual agreements.

Implicit Consent

The paper I mentioned previously focused on implicit consent. The thrust of the argument was relatively simple, if you live in a country are you tacitly consenting to its laws, institutions and systems of government? Does the very fact you choose not to leave the UK imply consent to all the UK's practices and governmental powers?

My argument at the time was "yes", but it was a 'yes' predicated one an assumption which is no longer available - the right to live under no system of government. In the early days of American and Australian colonisation people had a chance to give up their places in the established orders of Europe and immigrate to the colonies, to settle on land which had no government, legal system or social norms. If you’re presented with a choice between governments A, B, C or no government at all this strikes me as a genuine choice, the inclusion of the "none" option allows you to choose to live by your own abilities and morality alone. The same logic applies to many, if not all, other choices. Contracts should be binding not just because they are agreements entered into, but because you have a choice not to sign it.

This defence of tacit concept may have worked 300 years ago, but it’s on very dodgy footing in today's world. About the only land not claimed by one or more governments are uninhabitable rocky outcrops in the Artic or Pacific oceans, and that means our governments no longer have the right to assume we have agreed to their legislative framework, why? Because we don't have a choice anymore.

On a primal level we (society) do recognise that in some things our inability to 'opt out' means that those creating the choices have to be subject to greater scrutiny then when the opt out exists. Water companies, for example, could be global spanning mega-empires capable of destroying towns, cities and villages. If the powers that be in the water-world simply announced a 10,000% cost increase and tens of millions of people where faced with a choice between spending 95% of the their disposable income on securing a source of drinking water, or dying of thirst, the choice really is no choice at all - we pay. The same is not said for the makers of iPads or Kindles, whatever these people choose to charge for the latest techno-gimmicky it is a genuine choice whether to take it or not.

In a roundabout way this leads back to the choices we have for governments. At an election we get to choose (realistically) from three main political parties. We can also choose not to vote. By the power of tacit consent those who win the vote claim they have the full support of the people, after all, we either voted (and thereby explicitly accepted the system), or didn't vote and didn't emigrate (which is taken as tacit acceptance). Elections where the winners claim to have the full support of a people who have no choice but to vote for them go on all around the world, generally under the heading of 'rigged elections,' maybe we should be looking at bit closer to home for the next one?

/Zarl